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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.81+6.58vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.12+4.35vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+4.97vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.10+2.28vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.69+6.36vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.23-0.14vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.82+0.28vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College1.59+3.67vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-1.55vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.68+1.67vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.59+3.82vs Predicted
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12Brown University2.63-3.74vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.43-4.37vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.22-1.30vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire0.35+0.44vs Predicted
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16Harvard University3.64-11.37vs Predicted
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17Boston College2.44-8.18vs Predicted
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18Maine Maritime Academy0.77-3.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.58Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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6.35Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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7.97Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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6.28Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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11.36Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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5.86University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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7.28Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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11.67Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
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7.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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11.67Northeastern University1.680.0%1st Place
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14.82Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.590.0%1st Place
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8.26Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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8.63Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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12.7University of Vermont1.220.0%1st Place
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15.44University of New Hampshire0.350.0%1st Place
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4.63Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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8.82Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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14.25Maine Maritime Academy0.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Jack Egan | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 2.6% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.8% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Michels | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 3.4% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sam Monaghan | 3.0% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 3.0% |
| Kevin Brooksbank | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 19.2% | 28.2% |
| Mason Stang | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Ethan Burt | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 8.4% |
| Sam Harris | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 13.5% | 19.7% | 35.6% |
| Justin Callahan | 16.0% | 15.4% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Henri Richardsson | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 15.6% | 18.7% | 18.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.