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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.72+4.79vs Predicted
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2Boston University1.60+7.89vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.30+4.41vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.77+1.79vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.45+1.66vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.03-0.92vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+1.72vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-1.00vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.74+0.66vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.83+2.57vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.10-2.77vs Predicted
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12Brown University2.29-4.60vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.37-2.10vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College1.23-2.61vs Predicted
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15Boston College2.25-7.47vs Predicted
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16Maine Maritime Academy-0.01-1.20vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24-2.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.79Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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9.89Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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7.41Roger Williams University2.300.1%1st Place
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5.79Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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6.66Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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5.08Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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8.72U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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7.0Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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9.66Tufts University1.740.0%1st Place
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12.57University of Vermont0.830.0%1st Place
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8.23University of Rhode Island2.100.1%1st Place
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7.4Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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10.9Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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11.39Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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7.53Boston College2.250.1%1st Place
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14.8Maine Maritime Academy-0.010.0%1st Place
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14.19Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Satterberg | 11.5% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Porter Bell | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 1.2% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 7.5% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 12.7% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Robert Ulmer | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Oliver Keeves | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 14.6% | 16.3% | 11.6% |
| Tyler Nash | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 4.4% |
| William Hurd | 1.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 6.0% |
| Jack Redmond | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Isaac Thompson | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 11.4% | 19.9% | 41.5% |
| Andy Leshaw | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 11.6% | 21.4% | 31.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.