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📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.79+1.29vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+1.98vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+3.90vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.66+1.60vs Predicted
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5University of Washington1.32-0.54vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.09-1.04vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.64-1.25vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara2.51-5.27vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-0.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.29Stanford University2.790.4%1st Place
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3.98California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.1%1st Place
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6.9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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5.6University of California at Berkeley0.660.0%1st Place
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4.46University of Washington1.320.1%1st Place
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4.96University of Hawaii1.090.1%1st Place
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5.75University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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2.73University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.3%1st Place
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8.33University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reade Decker | 36.2% | 27.6% | 19.3% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 10.1% | 12.2% | 20.3% | 18.5% | 18.0% | 11.9% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 17.0% | 36.4% | 16.1% |
| Will Cornell | 4.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 14.8% | 17.7% | 19.7% | 16.7% | 3.3% |
| Benjamin Stone | 10.0% | 10.4% | 14.9% | 16.2% | 13.7% | 15.5% | 11.8% | 6.3% | 1.2% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 6.1% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 17.9% | 16.6% | 18.5% | 6.5% | 1.7% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 19.3% | 20.6% | 17.9% | 4.2% |
| Henry Boeger | 26.2% | 27.1% | 16.3% | 15.6% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Conrad Kistler | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 12.9% | 72.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.