← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.59vs Predicted
-
2Fordham University2.35+4.52vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+1.49vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+6.79vs Predicted
-
5Georgetown University2.45+1.06vs Predicted
-
6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+0.22vs Predicted
-
7University of Pennsylvania2.13+0.10vs Predicted
-
8Christopher Newport University0.85+3.61vs Predicted
-
9Hampton University0.61+3.46vs Predicted
-
10George Washington University1.90-1.91vs Predicted
-
11Webb Institute1.91-3.01vs Predicted
-
12Old Dominion University1.24-1.42vs Predicted
-
13SUNY Maritime College0.37+0.09vs Predicted
-
14Drexel University0.13-0.31vs Predicted
-
15Cornell University2.32-8.62vs Predicted
-
16Washington College0.21-2.23vs Predicted
-
17Princeton University0.70-4.74vs Predicted
-
18University of Virginia-0.43-2.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.59St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
-
6.52Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
-
4.49U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
10.79U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
-
6.06Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
-
6.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
-
7.1University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
-
11.61Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
-
12.46Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
-
8.09George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
-
7.99Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
-
10.58Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
-
13.09SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
-
13.69Drexel University0.130.0%1st Place
-
6.38Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
-
13.77Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
-
12.26Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
-
15.29University of Virginia-0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 15.7% | 14.9% | 13.6% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 6.4% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 14.9% | 15.4% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
| Enzo Menditto | 9.4% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.4% | 1.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 3.8% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 4.7% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 11.9% |
| Aidan Gurskis | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 13.8% | 15.1% | 15.5% |
| Sophia Devling | 9.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 12.5% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 16.2% | 14.9% |
| Ossian Kamal | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 6.3% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 16.4% | 38.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.