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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.58vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.45vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.90+5.06vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.35+2.28vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.45+0.96vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.77+2.38vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.85+4.61vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College0.37+5.17vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.24+1.18vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-3.66vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.70+1.29vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.13-4.66vs Predicted
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13Drexel University0.13+0.82vs Predicted
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14Washington College0.21-0.51vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.61-2.58vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia-0.43-0.58vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.32-10.50vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07-7.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.58St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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4.45U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.06George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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6.28Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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5.96Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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8.38Webb Institute1.770.0%1st Place
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11.61Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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13.17SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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10.18Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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6.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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12.29Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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7.34University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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13.82Drexel University0.130.0%1st Place
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13.49Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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12.42Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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15.42University of Virginia-0.430.0%1st Place
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6.5Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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10.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 15.2% | 14.9% | 14.5% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 14.1% | 15.3% | 15.6% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Zils | 9.3% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Enzo Menditto | 9.7% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Schmid | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 3.3% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 13.8% | 15.3% | 11.1% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 10.4% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 5.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Gurskis | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 15.7% | 17.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 15.4% | 13.3% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 7.4% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 15.6% | 39.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 8.3% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 2.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.