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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University0.85+10.16vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.35vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+3.17vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.45+2.01vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.13+1.95vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College0.37+7.09vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.35-0.65vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+2.52vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.24+1.23vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.99-5.63vs Predicted
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11Hampton University0.61+1.25vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.32-5.66vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.90-5.05vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.77-5.65vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.13-1.52vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.21-2.55vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.70-5.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.16Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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4.35St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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6.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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6.01Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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6.95University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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13.09SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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6.35Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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10.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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10.23Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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4.37U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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12.25Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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6.34Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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7.95George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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8.35Webb Institute1.770.0%1st Place
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13.48Drexel University0.130.0%1st Place
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13.45Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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12.0Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Atherton | 2.9% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 5.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 16.7% | 15.3% | 12.2% | 14.8% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Enzo Menditto | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 15.4% | 17.9% |
| Jacob Zils | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 3.7% |
| Diogo Silva | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 16.6% | 15.4% | 14.6% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 14.6% | 11.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Schmid | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Aidan Gurskis | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 15.4% | 25.9% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 16.6% | 21.9% |
| Ossian Kamal | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 11.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.