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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.31vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+4.08vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.45+2.97vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.77+4.30vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.90+2.70vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.32+0.54vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.99-2.63vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+2.50vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.85+2.57vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.13-3.07vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.24-0.85vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.21+1.38vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.35-6.59vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.70-1.96vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College0.37-2.09vs Predicted
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16Hampton University0.61-3.78vs Predicted
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17Drexel University0.13-3.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.31St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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6.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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5.97Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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8.3Webb Institute1.770.0%1st Place
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7.7George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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6.54Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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4.37U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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10.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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11.57Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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6.93University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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10.15Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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13.38Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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6.41Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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12.04Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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12.91SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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12.22Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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13.63Drexel University0.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 18.5% | 14.8% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Enzo Menditto | 9.6% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Schmid | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Sophia Devling | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 16.0% | 15.7% | 13.6% | 13.6% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 4.4% |
| Aston Atherton | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 6.2% |
| Cole Woodworth | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 2.5% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 15.9% | 22.8% |
| Jacob Zils | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 8.4% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 0.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 17.5% | 16.9% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 10.2% | 11.7% |
| Aidan Gurskis | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 16.1% | 26.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.