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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.36vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.90+5.67vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.13+4.06vs Predicted
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4Hampton University0.61+8.20vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.32+1.32vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99-1.50vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.24+3.15vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-1.90vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.45-2.78vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.91-2.27vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.85+0.51vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.35-5.64vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07-2.25vs Predicted
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14Washington College0.21-0.49vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.13-1.44vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.70-3.99vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College0.37-4.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.36St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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7.67George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.06University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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12.2Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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6.32Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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4.5U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.15Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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6.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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6.22Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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7.73Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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11.51Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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6.36Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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10.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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13.51Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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13.56Drexel University0.130.0%1st Place
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12.01Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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13.0SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 18.6% | 15.7% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Cole Woodworth | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 14.9% | 10.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 14.5% | 16.3% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 2.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 10.8% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Enzo Menditto | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 7.2% |
| Jacob Zils | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 17.8% | 22.2% |
| Aidan Gurskis | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 17.6% | 25.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 9.4% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 0.8% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 14.8% | 17.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.