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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.35+5.15vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.30vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.32+3.39vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+0.49vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.24+4.94vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.13+1.20vs Predicted
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7Princeton University0.70+4.92vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.91-0.33vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-2.72vs Predicted
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10Hampton University0.61+2.18vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.90-3.01vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.37+0.98vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.45-6.89vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07-3.12vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.13-1.45vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.85-4.48vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.21-3.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.15Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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4.3U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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6.39Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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4.49St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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9.94Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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7.2University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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11.92Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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7.67Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
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6.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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12.18Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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7.99George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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12.98SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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6.11Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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10.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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13.55Drexel University0.130.0%1st Place
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11.52Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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13.46Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Zils | 10.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 18.5% | 15.2% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 16.7% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.4% |
| Cole Woodworth | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 8.3% |
| Rayne Duff | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 9.7% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 17.0% | 17.7% |
| Enzo Menditto | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 4.0% |
| Aidan Gurskis | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 15.4% | 27.1% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 7.2% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 14.2% | 18.1% | 22.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.