← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.46vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.43vs Predicted
-
3Georgetown University2.79+2.11vs Predicted
-
4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+2.32vs Predicted
-
5Cornell University2.32+1.41vs Predicted
-
6Fordham University2.35+0.54vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+3.73vs Predicted
-
8Old Dominion University1.24+2.06vs Predicted
-
9Hampton University0.61+3.42vs Predicted
-
10University of Pennsylvania2.13-2.98vs Predicted
-
11Princeton University0.70+1.08vs Predicted
-
12Webb Institute1.91-4.09vs Predicted
-
13Drexel University0.13+0.64vs Predicted
-
14George Washington University1.90-5.97vs Predicted
-
15SUNY Maritime College0.37-2.13vs Predicted
-
16Christopher Newport University0.85-4.51vs Predicted
-
17Washington College0.21-3.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.46St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
-
4.43U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
-
5.11Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
-
6.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
-
6.41Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
-
6.54Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
-
10.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
-
10.06Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
-
12.42Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
-
7.02University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
-
12.08Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
-
7.91Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
-
13.64Drexel University0.130.0%1st Place
-
8.03George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
-
12.87SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
-
11.49Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
-
13.49Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 17.1% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 16.4% | 15.3% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 12.1% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 3.5% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 2.6% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 14.8% | 10.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Ossian Kamal | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 14.6% | 12.4% | 10.4% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Gurskis | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 16.7% | 26.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 18.9% |
| Aston Atherton | 1.9% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 6.2% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 19.0% | 21.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.