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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.56vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.49vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.13+4.23vs Predicted
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4Hampton University0.61+8.31vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.77+3.29vs Predicted
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6Washington College0.21+7.72vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.35-0.75vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.90-0.21vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+1.79vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.45-3.83vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.24-0.63vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-5.53vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.32-6.64vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.85-2.68vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.13-1.02vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.37-2.64vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.70-4.73vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.43-2.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.56U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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4.49St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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7.23University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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12.31Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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8.29Webb Institute1.770.1%1st Place
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13.72Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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6.25Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.79George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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10.79U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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6.17Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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10.37Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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6.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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6.36Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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11.32Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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13.98Drexel University0.130.0%1st Place
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13.36SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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12.27Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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15.26University of Virginia-0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 15.9% | 14.9% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 14.2% | 15.1% | 14.4% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 7.1% |
| Calvin Schmid | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 15.2% |
| Jacob Zils | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Enzo Menditto | 9.9% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.7% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 3.7% |
| Aidan Gurskis | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 17.4% | 16.6% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 14.8% | 11.4% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 8.9% | 5.8% |
| Maxwell Penders | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 17.4% | 36.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.