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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.35+5.56vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.57vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+1.53vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.45+1.96vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+1.14vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.32+0.48vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+3.86vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.90-0.25vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.77-0.71vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.24+0.48vs Predicted
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11Hampton University0.61+1.51vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.37+1.49vs Predicted
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13Drexel University0.13+0.73vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.13-7.11vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.70-2.91vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.85-4.34vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.21-3.23vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.43-2.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.56Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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4.57St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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4.53U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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5.96Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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6.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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6.48Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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10.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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7.75George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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8.29Webb Institute1.770.0%1st Place
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10.48Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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12.51Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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13.49SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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13.73Drexel University0.130.0%1st Place
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6.89University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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12.09Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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11.66Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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13.77Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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15.23University of Virginia-0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Zils | 8.9% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.4% | 15.5% | 15.3% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 14.8% | 15.0% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Enzo Menditto | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.7% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Schmid | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| Tyler Brown | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 6.6% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 14.3% | 15.3% | 12.2% |
| Aidan Gurskis | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 14.9% | 16.4% |
| Cole Woodworth | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 3.6% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 14.3% | 15.0% | 16.0% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 17.6% | 35.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.