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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.61vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.51vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.35+3.41vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.32+2.29vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.24+5.14vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+0.21vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+3.87vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.45-2.08vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.77-0.67vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.13-2.64vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.90-2.98vs Predicted
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12Hampton University0.61+0.74vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.21+0.63vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.37-1.03vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.70-2.90vs Predicted
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16Drexel University0.13-1.96vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia-0.43-1.59vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University0.85-6.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.61St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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4.51U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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6.41Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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6.29Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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10.14Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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6.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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10.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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5.92Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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8.33Webb Institute1.770.0%1st Place
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7.36University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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8.02George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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12.74Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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13.63Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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12.97SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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12.1Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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14.04Drexel University0.130.0%1st Place
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15.41University of Virginia-0.430.0%1st Place
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11.45Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 15.5% | 15.2% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 13.8% | 15.1% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 8.5% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 9.4% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.1% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 2.4% |
| Enzo Menditto | 9.7% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Schmid | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Cole Woodworth | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 7.8% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 14.4% | 15.7% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 14.0% | 9.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.6% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 4.8% |
| Aidan Gurskis | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 16.4% | 17.7% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 17.5% | 37.9% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 3.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.