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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.35+5.61vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.90+6.07vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+3.29vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.45+1.90vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.99-0.62vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.77+2.33vs Predicted
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7Hampton University0.61+5.38vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-3.66vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.32-2.65vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+1.07vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.13-3.82vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.85-0.09vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.37+0.09vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.70-2.12vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.13-1.10vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.24-5.66vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.21-3.24vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.43-2.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.61Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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8.07George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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6.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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5.9Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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4.38U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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8.33Webb Institute1.770.0%1st Place
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12.38Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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4.34St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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6.35Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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11.07U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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7.18University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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11.91Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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13.09SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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11.88Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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13.9Drexel University0.130.0%1st Place
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10.34Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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13.76Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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15.24University of Virginia-0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Zils | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Enzo Menditto | 10.4% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 17.9% | 16.6% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Schmid | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 6.3% |
| Owen Hennessey | 17.5% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| Cole Woodworth | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 3.8% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 11.9% |
| Ossian Kamal | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% |
| Aidan Gurskis | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 17.2% | 16.2% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 13.8% | 15.9% | 15.6% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 17.0% | 36.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.