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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.01+5.61vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.44+3.18vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.55+1.79vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.54+3.83vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.39+3.35vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.47-1.05vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.01+5.94vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23-2.42vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.08+0.48vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.43-1.47vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32-5.42vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.08-2.20vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.06+0.02vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.34-2.29vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.81-4.61vs Predicted
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16Drexel University-1.24-0.06vs Predicted
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17Washington College-0.87-1.79vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.90-2.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.61Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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5.18Georgetown University2.440.1%1st Place
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4.79U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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7.83Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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8.35George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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4.95University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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12.94U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.010.0%1st Place
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5.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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9.48Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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8.53Cornell University1.430.1%1st Place
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5.58St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.1%1st Place
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9.8Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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13.02SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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11.71Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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10.39Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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15.94Drexel University-1.240.0%1st Place
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15.21Washington College-0.870.0%1st Place
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15.11University of Virginia-0.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Thress | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Barnard | 10.5% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Welburn | 13.9% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McAliley | 12.7% | 14.2% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Finora | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 4.6% |
| JJ Klempen | 10.3% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Goodwin | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Ava Gustafson | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Landon Cormie | 12.9% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Luke Barker | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 14.5% | 15.7% | 10.8% | 5.5% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Lucas Randle | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 12.4% | 21.0% | 40.2% |
| Austin Latimer | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 11.4% | 15.8% | 21.8% | 25.0% |
| Mason Chapman | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 12.0% | 16.8% | 24.2% | 21.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.