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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.44+4.28vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.82+5.30vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32+2.60vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.55+0.75vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.47+0.06vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.39+2.64vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.54+1.07vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.01-1.58vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.08+0.64vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23-4.02vs Predicted
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11Hampton University0.81-0.32vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.08-2.06vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia-0.90+2.17vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.34-2.13vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College-0.23-1.27vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-4.26vs Predicted
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17Drexel University-1.24-0.99vs Predicted
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18Washington College-0.87-2.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.28Georgetown University2.440.1%1st Place
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7.3Cornell University1.820.1%1st Place
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5.6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.1%1st Place
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4.75U. S. Naval Academy2.550.2%1st Place
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5.06University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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8.64George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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8.07Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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6.42Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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9.64Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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5.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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10.68Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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9.94Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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15.17University of Virginia-0.900.0%1st Place
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11.87Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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13.73SUNY Maritime College-0.230.0%1st Place
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11.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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16.01Drexel University-1.240.0%1st Place
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15.12Washington College-0.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Barnard | 12.1% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gilda Dondona | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Landon Cormie | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Welburn | 15.1% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McAliley | 14.1% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 8.0% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Blake Goodwin | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| JJ Klempen | 10.6% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Mason Chapman | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 15.7% | 20.8% | 25.9% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 13.8% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 2.2% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 14.7% | 16.2% | 16.3% | 7.4% |
| Calvin Marsh | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 2.1% |
| Lucas Randle | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 12.6% | 22.2% | 40.0% |
| Austin Latimer | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 21.2% | 22.7% | 20.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.