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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.44+4.11vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.01+4.39vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.54+1.76vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.82+2.78vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46-0.06vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.39+2.24vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.01+5.75vs Predicted
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8Princeton University0.34+3.57vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.08+0.20vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.47-4.94vs Predicted
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11Hampton University0.81-0.72vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.06+1.15vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23-7.50vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.08-4.99vs Predicted
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15Drexel University-1.24+0.75vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia-0.90-0.91vs Predicted
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17Washington College-0.87-1.93vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute0.07-5.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.11Georgetown University2.440.1%1st Place
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6.39Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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4.76U. S. Naval Academy2.540.1%1st Place
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6.78Cornell University1.820.1%1st Place
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4.94St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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8.24George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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12.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.010.0%1st Place
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11.57Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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9.2Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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5.06University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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10.28Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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13.15SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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5.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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9.01Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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15.75Drexel University-1.240.0%1st Place
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15.09University of Virginia-0.900.0%1st Place
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15.07Washington College-0.870.0%1st Place
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12.35Webb Institute0.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Barnard | 11.7% | 13.0% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Henry Allgeier | 13.3% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gilda Dondona | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Anderson | 13.9% | 15.2% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Finora | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 14.3% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 4.1% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 1.6% |
| Blake Goodwin | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Jackson McAliley | 13.0% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Luke Barker | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 5.2% |
| JJ Klempen | 10.6% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Randle | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 13.6% | 20.7% | 36.5% |
| Mason Chapman | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 11.2% | 15.7% | 20.2% | 24.1% |
| Austin Latimer | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 21.1% | 24.7% |
| Marc Leyk | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 7.0% | 2.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.