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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.54+4.16vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46+3.34vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.47+2.24vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.44+1.20vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+0.85vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.82+1.26vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48+4.75vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.39+0.58vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.01-2.45vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.32-0.84vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.54-2.68vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.34+0.42vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University1.08-3.36vs Predicted
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14Washington College-0.87+1.15vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.81-4.35vs Predicted
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16Drexel University-1.24+0.03vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.06-3.54vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.90-2.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.16U. S. Naval Academy2.540.1%1st Place
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5.34St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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5.24University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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5.2Georgetown University2.440.1%1st Place
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5.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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7.26Cornell University1.820.1%1st Place
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11.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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8.58George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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6.55Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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9.16Old Dominion University1.320.0%1st Place
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8.32Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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12.42Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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9.64Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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15.15Washington College-0.870.0%1st Place
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10.65Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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16.03Drexel University-1.240.0%1st Place
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13.46SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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15.25University of Virginia-0.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Allgeier | 12.5% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Anderson | 10.3% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McAliley | 11.6% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Barnard | 13.7% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 10.4% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gilda Dondona | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Marsh | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 6.0% | 1.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 7.0% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierce Brindley | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 13.5% | 7.4% | 2.8% |
| Joshua Bendura | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Austin Latimer | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 15.6% | 21.7% | 23.6% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Lucas Randle | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 12.9% | 20.7% | 41.7% |
| Luke Barker | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 16.3% | 15.7% | 13.9% | 6.5% |
| Mason Chapman | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 10.6% | 16.9% | 25.0% | 23.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.