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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.55+3.43vs Predicted
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2Boston University-0.38+10.74vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94+3.22vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.01+2.20vs Predicted
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5Boston College1.77+1.74vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.75-1.95vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University1.50+0.62vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.56-4.62vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.30-1.86vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.92-1.59vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.53-1.51vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.19-4.47vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.52-6.58vs Predicted
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15Maine Maritime Academy-0.36-2.29vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island0.14-4.30vs Predicted
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17Middlebury College-1.88-1.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.43Dartmouth College2.550.2%1st Place
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12.74Boston University-0.380.0%1st Place
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6.22Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
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6.2Brown University2.010.1%1st Place
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6.74Boston College1.770.1%1st Place
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4.05Yale University2.750.2%1st Place
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7.62Roger Williams University1.500.1%1st Place
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4.38Harvard University2.560.2%1st Place
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8.14Tufts University1.300.0%1st Place
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9.41Connecticut College0.920.0%1st Place
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10.49University of Vermont0.530.0%1st Place
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8.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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7.42Northeastern University1.520.1%1st Place
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12.71Maine Maritime Academy-0.360.0%1st Place
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11.7University of Rhode Island0.140.0%1st Place
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15.22Middlebury College-1.880.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Young | 16.2% | 15.0% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sage Andrews | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 18.8% | 28.3% | 10.5% |
| Lucy Brock | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Katherine McNamara | 6.9% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sara Schumann | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Carmen Cowles | 17.5% | 17.0% | 16.0% | 13.5% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tavia Smith | 6.4% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Zoey Ziskind | 16.3% | 15.1% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Haley Andreasen | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 3.3% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Ella Towner | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 14.4% | 8.4% | 1.9% |
| Celia Houston | 3.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Simone Ford | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 13.3% | 18.4% | 25.6% | 10.6% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 16.0% | 16.4% | 17.6% | 4.0% |
| Kate Adams | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 6.1% | 12.5% | 71.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.