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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.31+1.88vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine-1.70+5.84vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.00+5.83vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles-1.74+4.12vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine-0.66+0.11vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59-1.17vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00-3.48vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine-2.22+1.62vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-2.68+1.95vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.64-4.93vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-2.43-0.74vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-2.14-2.40vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.73-1.76vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-2.69-3.04vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-2.78-3.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.88University of California at Santa Cruz0.310.3%1st Place
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7.84University of California at Irvine-1.700.0%1st Place
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8.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.000.0%1st Place
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8.12University of California at Los Angeles-1.740.0%1st Place
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5.11University of California at Irvine-0.660.1%1st Place
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4.83University of California at Santa Cruz-0.590.1%1st Place
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3.52Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.2%1st Place
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9.62University of California at Irvine-2.220.0%1st Place
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10.95University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
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5.07University of California at Berkeley-0.640.1%1st Place
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10.26University of California at Los Angeles-2.430.0%1st Place
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9.6University of California at Irvine-2.140.0%1st Place
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11.24Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.730.0%1st Place
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10.96University of California at Los Angeles-2.690.0%1st Place
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11.18University of California at Davis-2.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Anderson | 30.5% | 21.8% | 17.4% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Mira Shupe | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 3.5% |
| Liam Williams | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| Nikita Swatek | 10.9% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Caden Domingo | 10.8% | 11.2% | 14.2% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 20.1% | 20.3% | 16.2% | 14.7% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Stank | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 6.2% |
| Nathan Baer | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 13.8% | 15.0% |
| Ethan Lisle | 9.1% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Smith | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 11.4% |
| Gennis Marie Pilapil | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.0% |
| Paul Munsell | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 11.3% | 13.8% | 14.2% | 19.2% |
| Alexandra Toaxen | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 16.5% | 15.0% |
| Chloe Lighterink | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 13.8% | 20.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.