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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.31+1.87vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine-0.66+2.74vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00+0.39vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley-0.64+0.83vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles-1.74+1.83vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles-2.43+2.75vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-2.69+2.10vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59-4.29vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-2.68+0.34vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine-1.70-3.33vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-2.22-2.85vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.73-2.54vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-2.78-3.51vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-2.14-6.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.87University of California at Santa Cruz0.310.3%1st Place
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4.74University of California at Irvine-0.660.1%1st Place
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3.39Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.2%1st Place
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4.83University of California at Berkeley-0.640.1%1st Place
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7.83University of California at Los Angeles-1.740.0%1st Place
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9.75University of California at Los Angeles-2.430.0%1st Place
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10.1University of California at Los Angeles-2.690.0%1st Place
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4.71University of California at Santa Cruz-0.590.1%1st Place
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10.34University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
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7.67University of California at Irvine-1.700.0%1st Place
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9.15University of California at Irvine-2.220.0%1st Place
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10.46Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.730.0%1st Place
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10.49University of California at Davis-2.780.0%1st Place
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8.68University of California at Irvine-2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Anderson | 29.2% | 24.1% | 16.5% | 11.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 10.9% | 12.8% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Groom | 22.0% | 17.7% | 17.3% | 16.0% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lisle | 9.5% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 13.0% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Liam Williams | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% |
| Katherine Smith | 1.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 12.5% |
| Alexandra Toaxen | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 15.7% | 15.1% |
| Caden Domingo | 12.0% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Baer | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 14.9% | 14.9% | 16.0% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Matthew Stank | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 7.6% |
| Paul Munsell | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 14.3% | 19.6% |
| Chloe Lighterink | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 15.8% | 19.9% |
| Gennis Marie Pilapil | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 4.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.