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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Michigan1.64+2.41vs Predicted
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2University of Notre Dame0.99+2.73vs Predicted
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3Marquette University0.66+2.76vs Predicted
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4Indiana University0.82+1.36vs Predicted
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5University of Saint Thomas0.47+1.41vs Predicted
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6Northwestern University1.23-1.58vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin0.53-1.13vs Predicted
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8Ohio State University-0.03-0.45vs Predicted
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9Hope College-1.53+2.06vs Predicted
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10Michigan Technological University0.54-3.89vs Predicted
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11Purdue University-0.50-2.15vs Predicted
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12Washington University-1.65-0.70vs Predicted
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13Western Michigan University-2.71-0.16vs Predicted
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14Grand Valley State University-1.75-2.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.41University of Michigan1.640.2%1st Place
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4.73University of Notre Dame0.990.1%1st Place
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5.76Marquette University0.660.1%1st Place
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5.36Indiana University0.820.1%1st Place
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6.41University of Saint Thomas0.470.1%1st Place
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4.42Northwestern University1.230.1%1st Place
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5.87University of Wisconsin0.530.1%1st Place
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7.55Ohio State University-0.030.0%1st Place
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11.06Hope College-1.530.0%1st Place
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6.11Michigan Technological University0.540.1%1st Place
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8.85Purdue University-0.500.0%1st Place
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11.3Washington University-1.650.0%1st Place
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12.84Western Michigan University-2.710.0%1st Place
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11.35Grand Valley State University-1.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Vogel | 24.7% | 18.2% | 17.0% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Hesse | 12.3% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eric Brieden | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nithya Balachander | 8.4% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Greg Bittle | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jake Weinstein | 14.7% | 13.0% | 14.6% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacqueline Ruggieri | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Mason Shaw | 4.8% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 10.9% | 6.3% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Jack Rutherford | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 16.6% | 22.1% | 23.7% | 11.1% |
| Andrew Michels | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nok In Chan | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 15.8% | 16.5% | 10.9% | 6.8% | 1.0% |
| Jacob Hsia | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 14.3% | 24.5% | 20.5% | 15.9% |
| Keegan Aerts | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 16.7% | 58.3% |
| Carly Irwin | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 19.9% | 28.1% | 13.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.