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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.39+1.72vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.38+2.96vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.51+1.71vs Predicted
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4University of Washington1.32+4.47vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University2.11+0.73vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+1.12vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz1.35+1.38vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego1.09+1.17vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University0.64+1.97vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.71+0.50vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego0.18+1.41vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine0.27+0.03vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California1.48-5.02vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-5.52vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-0.27vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis0.57-5.92vs Predicted
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18California State University Channel Islands0.42-6.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.72Stanford University3.390.3%1st Place
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4.96University of Hawaii2.380.1%1st Place
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4.71University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.1%1st Place
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8.47University of Washington1.320.0%1st Place
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5.73San Diego State University2.110.1%1st Place
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7.12California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.1%1st Place
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8.38University of California at Santa Cruz1.350.0%1st Place
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9.17University of California at San Diego1.090.0%1st Place
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10.97Arizona State University0.640.0%1st Place
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10.5University of California at Berkeley0.710.0%1st Place
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12.41University of California at San Diego0.180.0%1st Place
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12.03University of California at Irvine0.270.0%1st Place
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7.98University of Southern California1.480.1%1st Place
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9.48Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.0%1st Place
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15.73University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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11.08University of California at Davis0.570.0%1st Place
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11.57California State University Channel Islands0.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 33.1% | 22.2% | 16.8% | 11.6% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 11.3% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Boeger | 11.3% | 14.9% | 14.5% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Stone | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Noah Nyenhuis | 8.7% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Allie Shand | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 0.7% |
| Juan Casal | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 8.2% | 3.2% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 1.8% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 21.0% | 8.7% |
| Arin Bekem | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 13.6% | 15.7% | 7.4% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Garrett Henderson | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Conrad Kistler | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 10.9% | 67.5% |
| Dylan Wondolleck | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 3.9% |
| Sterling Maggard | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 13.3% | 5.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.