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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.39+1.71vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.51+2.64vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+4.06vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.48+3.89vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University2.11+0.70vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine0.27+6.18vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz1.35+1.36vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego1.09+1.12vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University0.64+1.99vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego0.18+1.28vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.71-1.33vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands0.42-1.45vs Predicted
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14University of Washington1.32-5.48vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-5.52vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-0.33vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis0.57-5.96vs Predicted
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18University of Hawaii2.38-12.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.71Stanford University3.390.3%1st Place
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4.64University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.1%1st Place
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7.06California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.1%1st Place
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7.89University of Southern California1.480.1%1st Place
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5.7San Diego State University2.110.1%1st Place
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12.18University of California at Irvine0.270.0%1st Place
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8.36University of California at Santa Cruz1.350.0%1st Place
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9.12University of California at San Diego1.090.0%1st Place
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10.99Arizona State University0.640.0%1st Place
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12.28University of California at San Diego0.180.0%1st Place
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10.67University of California at Berkeley0.710.0%1st Place
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11.55California State University Channel Islands0.420.0%1st Place
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8.52University of Washington1.320.0%1st Place
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9.48Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.0%1st Place
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15.67University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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11.04University of California at Davis0.570.0%1st Place
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5.13University of Hawaii2.380.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 34.1% | 21.0% | 16.5% | 12.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Boeger | 12.6% | 15.4% | 12.5% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Noah Nyenhuis | 8.8% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Arin Bekem | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 14.5% | 8.9% |
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Allie Shand | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 0.8% |
| Juan Casal | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 3.7% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 17.7% | 6.9% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 7.5% | 3.3% |
| Sterling Maggard | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 14.6% | 5.3% |
| Benjamin Stone | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| Garrett Henderson | 1.9% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Conrad Kistler | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 12.4% | 65.7% |
| Dylan Wondolleck | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 3.6% |
| Erik Anderson | 10.5% | 13.1% | 14.0% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.