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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+3.76vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University-0.19+7.87vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.08+0.18vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.46+3.35vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.40-0.33vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+1.46vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy0.33+0.91vs Predicted
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8University of Washington0.43-0.43vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University0.08-0.30vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii1.09-4.32vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-0.75+0.55vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.72-0.29vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-1.53+0.65vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.71+0.05vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-2.04+0.10vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley0.40-8.18vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-2.06-1.85vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-1.99-3.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.76University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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9.87San Diego State University-0.190.0%1st Place
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3.18Stanford University2.080.2%1st Place
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7.35University of Southern California0.460.1%1st Place
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4.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.400.1%1st Place
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7.46University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.1%1st Place
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7.91California Poly Maritime Academy0.330.0%1st Place
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7.57University of Washington0.430.1%1st Place
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8.7Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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5.68University of Hawaii1.090.1%1st Place
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11.55Arizona State University-0.750.0%1st Place
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11.71University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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13.65University of California at Irvine-1.530.0%1st Place
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14.05University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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15.1California State University Channel Islands-2.040.0%1st Place
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7.82University of California at Berkeley0.400.0%1st Place
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15.15University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
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14.82University of California at San Diego-1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 13.3% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Gormely | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Whidden | 23.1% | 23.8% | 16.7% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Conze | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Headington | 14.7% | 13.9% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Cuyler | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Miller | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 1.9% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.7% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 5.2% | 1.4% |
| Brayden Money | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 14.9% | 14.2% | 10.6% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 14.8% | 16.9% | 12.8% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 11.7% | 15.5% | 18.4% | 25.4% |
| Katherine Olsen | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Orion Spatafora | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 20.3% | 27.0% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 19.2% | 17.6% | 20.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.