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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.08+2.26vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.40+2.85vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+1.72vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.46+3.48vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.43+2.57vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.09-0.38vs Predicted
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7San Diego State University-0.19+2.67vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy0.33-0.09vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-1.59vs Predicted
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10Western Washington University0.08-1.03vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands-2.04+4.07vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-0.75-0.25vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-0.72-1.79vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley0.40-6.48vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.99-0.05vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-2.06-0.82vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-1.71-2.71vs Predicted
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18University of California at Irvine-1.53-4.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.26Stanford University2.080.2%1st Place
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4.85Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.400.1%1st Place
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4.72University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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7.48University of Southern California0.460.1%1st Place
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7.57University of Washington0.430.1%1st Place
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5.62University of Hawaii1.090.1%1st Place
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9.67San Diego State University-0.190.0%1st Place
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7.91California Poly Maritime Academy0.330.1%1st Place
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7.41University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.1%1st Place
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8.97Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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15.07California State University Channel Islands-2.040.0%1st Place
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11.75Arizona State University-0.750.0%1st Place
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11.21University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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7.52University of California at Berkeley0.400.1%1st Place
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14.95University of California at San Diego-1.990.0%1st Place
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15.18University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
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14.29University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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13.58University of California at Irvine-1.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Whidden | 24.8% | 23.6% | 15.0% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Headington | 11.2% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 13.8% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Conze | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Miller | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 9.3% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Gormely | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Owen Cuyler | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 14.3% | 19.2% | 26.3% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 1.2% |
| Katherine Olsen | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 16.4% | 18.4% | 22.1% |
| Orion Spatafora | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 15.2% | 20.5% | 25.3% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 13.1% | 16.1% | 17.1% | 14.5% |
| Brayden Money | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 14.2% | 15.3% | 14.4% | 12.1% | 8.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.