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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California0.46+6.59vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+2.71vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii1.09+2.68vs Predicted
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4University of Washington0.43+3.47vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+2.32vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University-0.75+5.41vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.40-2.32vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.08-4.91vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University0.08-0.36vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.20-1.46vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.72+0.46vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-1.99+3.15vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-0.19-3.47vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.71+0.02vs Predicted
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15California Poly Maritime Academy0.33-7.12vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands-2.04-0.90vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-2.06-1.87vs Predicted
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18University of California at Irvine-1.53-4.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.59University of Southern California0.460.0%1st Place
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4.71University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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5.68University of Hawaii1.090.1%1st Place
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7.47University of Washington0.430.1%1st Place
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7.32University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.1%1st Place
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11.41Arizona State University-0.750.0%1st Place
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4.68Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.400.1%1st Place
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3.09Stanford University2.080.3%1st Place
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8.64Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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8.54University of California at Berkeley0.200.0%1st Place
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11.46University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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15.15University of California at San Diego-1.990.0%1st Place
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9.53San Diego State University-0.190.0%1st Place
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14.02University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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7.88California Poly Maritime Academy0.330.0%1st Place
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15.1California State University Channel Islands-2.040.0%1st Place
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15.13University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
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13.59University of California at Irvine-1.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximilian Conze | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Ted McDonough | 11.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 14.8% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 9.1% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Miller | 5.1% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| George Soliman | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Morgan Headington | 13.6% | 14.2% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whidden | 29.5% | 20.0% | 13.5% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 16.0% | 20.9% | 23.7% |
| Owen Gormely | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 14.5% | 16.7% | 12.4% |
| Owen Cuyler | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 15.1% | 18.6% | 25.9% |
| Orion Spatafora | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 20.0% | 26.1% |
| Brayden Money | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 14.3% | 16.3% | 13.1% | 8.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.