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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1San Diego State University-0.19+8.71vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.09+3.59vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.40+1.66vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara0.97+1.74vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.20+3.18vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California0.46+1.45vs Predicted
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7University of Washington0.43+0.45vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University0.08+0.51vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-1.99+5.89vs Predicted
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10Stanford University2.08-6.83vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands-2.04+3.99vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.72-0.40vs Predicted
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13California Poly Maritime Academy0.33-5.29vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-6.91vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-0.75-3.66vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-1.71-1.80vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine-1.53-3.22vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-2.06-3.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.71San Diego State University-0.190.0%1st Place
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5.59University of Hawaii1.090.1%1st Place
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4.66Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.400.1%1st Place
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5.74University of California at Santa Barbara0.970.1%1st Place
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8.18University of California at Berkeley0.200.0%1st Place
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7.45University of Southern California0.460.1%1st Place
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7.45University of Washington0.430.1%1st Place
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8.51Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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14.89University of California at San Diego-1.990.0%1st Place
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3.17Stanford University2.080.3%1st Place
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14.99California State University Channel Islands-2.040.0%1st Place
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11.6University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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7.71California Poly Maritime Academy0.330.0%1st Place
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7.09University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.1%1st Place
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11.34Arizona State University-0.750.0%1st Place
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14.2University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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13.78University of California at Irvine-1.530.0%1st Place
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14.94University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Gormely | 3.5% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 7.5% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Headington | 12.4% | 14.9% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Erisman | 10.9% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Maximilian Conze | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Miller | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 16.0% | 18.5% | 21.9% |
| Thomas Whidden | 27.0% | 20.4% | 17.8% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 14.2% | 19.6% | 25.4% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 1.1% |
| Owen Cuyler | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Ian Johnston | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 14.6% | 15.1% | 16.0% | 14.0% |
| Brayden Money | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 15.2% | 14.4% | 11.3% |
| Orion Spatafora | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 14.7% | 19.7% | 24.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.