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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.40+3.66vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara0.97+3.93vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.08+0.07vs Predicted
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4University of Washington0.43+3.33vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University-0.19+4.52vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.09-0.55vs Predicted
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7Western Washington University0.08+1.62vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy0.33-0.28vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-1.71+5.23vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-0.72+1.47vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-3.54vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-0.75-0.36vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley0.20-4.87vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-2.04+0.88vs Predicted
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15University of Southern California0.46-7.67vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-1.99-1.06vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-2.06-1.90vs Predicted
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18University of California at Irvine-1.53-4.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.66Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.400.1%1st Place
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5.93University of California at Santa Barbara0.970.1%1st Place
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3.07Stanford University2.080.3%1st Place
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7.33University of Washington0.430.1%1st Place
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9.52San Diego State University-0.190.0%1st Place
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5.45University of Hawaii1.090.1%1st Place
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8.62Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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7.72California Poly Maritime Academy0.330.1%1st Place
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14.23University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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11.47University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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7.46University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.1%1st Place
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11.64Arizona State University-0.750.0%1st Place
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8.13University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
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14.88California State University Channel Islands-2.040.0%1st Place
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7.33University of Southern California0.460.1%1st Place
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14.94University of California at San Diego-1.990.0%1st Place
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15.1University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
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13.54University of California at Irvine-1.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Headington | 14.0% | 14.7% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Erisman | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whidden | 26.4% | 22.8% | 15.4% | 12.8% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Miller | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Owen Gormely | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 10.0% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Owen Cuyler | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 16.0% | 18.0% | 12.9% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.6% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| George Soliman | 5.9% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 4.8% | 2.4% |
| Wilton Lawton | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 13.8% | 20.8% | 22.4% |
| Maximilian Conze | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 15.2% | 18.6% | 23.8% |
| Orion Spatafora | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 19.4% | 27.1% |
| Brayden Money | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 14.7% | 15.7% | 11.6% | 9.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.