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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
26
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.82+0.73vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.06+2.72vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz-1.17+6.21vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley-1.55+6.74vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University-1.53+5.52vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-3.02+12.54vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.07+1.49vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-2.45+7.20vs Predicted
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9San Diego State University-1.45+1.15vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-2.52+5.92vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.48-4.78vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-2.07+1.76vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-2.22+0.31vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-2.81+2.51vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara-1.26-6.56vs Predicted
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17University of California at Berkeley-1.93-4.19vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-2.31-3.14vs Predicted
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19University of California at Irvine-2.27-4.48vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-2.98-1.69vs Predicted
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21California State University Channel Islands-2.89-3.55vs Predicted
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22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.73-4.79vs Predicted
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23University of California at Davis-3.02-4.61vs Predicted
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24University of California at Los Angeles-2.75-7.04vs Predicted
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25University of Southern California-3.36-5.17vs Predicted
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26University of California at Los Angeles-3.96-3.61vs Predicted
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27Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.68-15.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.73University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.6%1st Place
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4.72University of California at Santa Cruz0.060.1%1st Place
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9.21University of California at Santa Cruz-1.170.0%1st Place
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10.74University of California at Berkeley-1.550.0%1st Place
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10.52San Diego State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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18.54University of California at Irvine-3.020.0%1st Place
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8.49Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.070.0%1st Place
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15.2Arizona State University-2.450.0%1st Place
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10.15San Diego State University-1.450.0%1st Place
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15.92Arizona State University-2.520.0%1st Place
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6.22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.480.1%1st Place
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13.76Arizona State University-2.070.0%1st Place
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14.31University of California at San Diego-2.220.0%1st Place
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17.51University of California at Davis-2.810.0%1st Place
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9.44University of California at Santa Barbara-1.260.0%1st Place
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12.81University of California at Berkeley-1.930.0%1st Place
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14.86University of California at Los Angeles-2.310.0%1st Place
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14.52University of California at Irvine-2.270.0%1st Place
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18.31University of California at San Diego-2.980.0%1st Place
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17.45California State University Channel Islands-2.890.0%1st Place
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17.21Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.730.0%1st Place
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18.39University of California at Davis-3.020.0%1st Place
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16.96University of California at Los Angeles-2.750.0%1st Place
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19.83University of Southern California-3.360.0%1st Place
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22.39University of California at Los Angeles-3.960.0%1st Place
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11.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 55.3% | 26.6% | 11.3% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Sharp | 10.1% | 14.7% | 16.4% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brily Petersen | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Fagan | 1.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Marley Daniel | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Jacobson | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Norwood | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
| julian stauffer | 2.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Prendiville | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.2% |
| Parker Ziegler | 6.2% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elias Ricken | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Claire Diaco | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| James Makler | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 2.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Mayfield | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| John Flanagan | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Spencer Eldridge | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Mackenzie Santos | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 6.5% |
| Vaughn Russell | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 4.6% |
| Paul Munsell | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 3.6% |
| Emerson Coskey | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.6% |
| Greg Griffin | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.1% |
| Maximilian Miesen | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 14.7% |
| Sophie Nuckowski | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 16.0% | 38.0% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.