← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
26
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara1.82+0.71vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Cruz0.06+2.70vs Predicted
-
3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.07+5.70vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Santa Cruz-1.17+5.01vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Berkeley-1.55+5.66vs Predicted
-
6San Diego State University-1.53+4.75vs Predicted
-
7San Diego State University-1.45+3.22vs Predicted
-
8Arizona State University-2.07+5.26vs Predicted
-
9Arizona State University-2.45+6.43vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Santa Barbara-1.26-0.53vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Irvine-3.02+7.27vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Berkeley-1.93+1.04vs Predicted
-
14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.48-7.70vs Predicted
-
15Arizona State University-2.52+1.01vs Predicted
-
16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.73+1.03vs Predicted
-
17University of California at Los Angeles-2.31-2.12vs Predicted
-
18University of California at San Diego-2.22-3.65vs Predicted
-
19University of California at Davis-3.02-0.53vs Predicted
-
20University of California at Los Angeles-2.75-2.89vs Predicted
-
21University of California at Los Angeles-3.96+0.95vs Predicted
-
22University of Southern California-3.36-1.82vs Predicted
-
23University of California at San Diego-2.98-4.83vs Predicted
-
24California State University Channel Islands-2.89-6.22vs Predicted
-
25University of California at Davis-2.81-7.87vs Predicted
-
26University of California at Irvine-2.27-11.35vs Predicted
-
27Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.68-15.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
1.71University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.6%1st Place
-
4.7University of California at Santa Cruz0.060.1%1st Place
-
8.7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.070.0%1st Place
-
9.01University of California at Santa Cruz-1.170.0%1st Place
-
10.66University of California at Berkeley-1.550.0%1st Place
-
10.75San Diego State University-1.530.0%1st Place
-
10.22San Diego State University-1.450.0%1st Place
-
13.26Arizona State University-2.070.0%1st Place
-
15.43Arizona State University-2.450.0%1st Place
-
9.47University of California at Santa Barbara-1.260.0%1st Place
-
18.27University of California at Irvine-3.020.0%1st Place
-
13.04University of California at Berkeley-1.930.0%1st Place
-
6.3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.480.1%1st Place
-
16.01Arizona State University-2.520.0%1st Place
-
17.03Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.730.0%1st Place
-
14.88University of California at Los Angeles-2.310.0%1st Place
-
14.35University of California at San Diego-2.220.0%1st Place
-
18.47University of California at Davis-3.020.0%1st Place
-
17.11University of California at Los Angeles-2.750.0%1st Place
-
21.95University of California at Los Angeles-3.960.0%1st Place
-
20.18University of Southern California-3.360.0%1st Place
-
18.17University of California at San Diego-2.980.0%1st Place
-
17.78California State University Channel Islands-2.890.0%1st Place
-
17.13University of California at Davis-2.810.0%1st Place
-
14.65University of California at Irvine-2.270.0%1st Place
-
11.77Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 56.4% | 26.1% | 11.3% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Sharp | 9.5% | 15.1% | 16.3% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 3.3% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brily Petersen | 2.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Fagan | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marley Daniel | 1.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| julian stauffer | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elias Ricken | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Mason Norwood | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 2.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Jacobson | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 7.5% |
| John Mayfield | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Parker Ziegler | 5.2% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Prendiville | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| Paul Munsell | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.3% |
| John Flanagan | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| Claire Diaco | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Emerson Coskey | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.5% |
| Greg Griffin | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 3.7% |
| Sophie Nuckowski | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 14.8% | 36.2% |
| Maximilian Miesen | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 16.1% |
| Mackenzie Santos | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 7.6% |
| Vaughn Russell | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 5.0% |
| James Makler | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 4.6% |
| Spencer Eldridge | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 1.5% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.