← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
19.2%
Within 2 Positions
5.1
Avg Position Diff
26
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara1.82+0.76vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Barbara-1.26+7.72vs Predicted
-
3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.07+5.81vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Berkeley-1.93+8.81vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Irvine-2.27+9.37vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Berkeley-1.55+4.99vs Predicted
-
7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.48-0.70vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Santa Cruz0.06-3.53vs Predicted
-
9Arizona State University-2.45+6.45vs Predicted
-
10San Diego State University-1.45+0.38vs Predicted
-
12Arizona State University-2.07+1.43vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Davis-3.02+5.80vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Santa Cruz-1.12-5.11vs Predicted
-
15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.73+2.20vs Predicted
-
16University of California at San Diego-2.98+2.37vs Predicted
-
17University of California at Davis-2.81+0.63vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Los Angeles-3.33+2.05vs Predicted
-
19University of California at Los Angeles-2.31-4.04vs Predicted
-
20California State University Channel Islands-2.89-2.08vs Predicted
-
21University of California at San Diego-2.22-6.90vs Predicted
-
22University of California at Los Angeles-2.75-4.66vs Predicted
-
23University of Southern California-3.36-2.98vs Predicted
-
24University of California at Irvine-3.02-5.45vs Predicted
-
25San Diego State University-1.53-14.48vs Predicted
-
26Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.68-14.34vs Predicted
-
27Arizona State University-2.52-10.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
1.76University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.5%1st Place
-
9.72University of California at Santa Barbara-1.260.0%1st Place
-
8.81Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.070.0%1st Place
-
12.81University of California at Berkeley-1.930.0%1st Place
-
14.37University of California at Irvine-2.270.0%1st Place
-
10.99University of California at Berkeley-1.550.0%1st Place
-
6.3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.480.1%1st Place
-
4.47University of California at Santa Cruz0.060.1%1st Place
-
15.45Arizona State University-2.450.0%1st Place
-
10.38San Diego State University-1.450.0%1st Place
-
13.43Arizona State University-2.070.0%1st Place
-
18.8University of California at Davis-3.020.0%1st Place
-
8.89University of California at Santa Cruz-1.120.0%1st Place
-
17.2Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.730.0%1st Place
-
18.37University of California at San Diego-2.980.0%1st Place
-
17.63University of California at Davis-2.810.0%1st Place
-
20.05University of California at Los Angeles-3.330.0%1st Place
-
14.96University of California at Los Angeles-2.310.0%1st Place
-
17.92California State University Channel Islands-2.890.0%1st Place
-
14.1University of California at San Diego-2.220.0%1st Place
-
17.34University of California at Los Angeles-2.750.0%1st Place
-
20.02University of Southern California-3.360.0%1st Place
-
18.55University of California at Irvine-3.020.0%1st Place
-
10.52San Diego State University-1.530.0%1st Place
-
11.66Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.680.0%1st Place
-
16.5Arizona State University-2.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 53.1% | 27.3% | 13.8% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 2.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Mayfield | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Eldridge | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Connor Fagan | 1.0% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Parker Ziegler | 7.0% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Sharp | 11.3% | 17.8% | 15.1% | 14.0% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Norwood | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| julian stauffer | 2.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elias Ricken | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Emerson Coskey | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 9.5% |
| Emilia McNabb | 2.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Munsell | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% |
| Mackenzie Santos | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.4% |
| James Makler | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% |
| Felix Zhang | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 17.0% |
| John Flanagan | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Vaughn Russell | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% |
| Claire Diaco | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Greg Griffin | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 4.2% |
| Maximilian Miesen | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 21.8% |
| Michael Jacobson | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% |
| Marley Daniel | 1.7% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 1.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Prendiville | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.