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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
26
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.82+0.72vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara-1.26+7.73vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.06+1.69vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.07+4.69vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles-2.31+9.61vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley-1.93+6.88vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-2.45+7.57vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-1.12-0.35vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.48-3.82vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-2.98+7.38vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-1.55-1.17vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-2.81+4.80vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.68-2.36vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-2.27-0.28vs Predicted
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16San Diego State University-1.45-5.55vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-2.22-2.47vs Predicted
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18Arizona State University-2.07-4.39vs Predicted
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19California State University Channel Islands-2.89-1.00vs Predicted
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20University of California at Davis-3.02-1.44vs Predicted
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21University of California at Los Angeles-2.75-4.18vs Predicted
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22University of Southern California-3.36-1.71vs Predicted
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23University of California at Los Angeles-3.33-3.04vs Predicted
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24Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.73-6.89vs Predicted
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25University of California at Irvine-3.02-6.72vs Predicted
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26San Diego State University-1.53-15.15vs Predicted
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27Arizona State University-2.52-10.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.72University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.6%1st Place
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9.73University of California at Santa Barbara-1.260.0%1st Place
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4.69University of California at Santa Cruz0.060.1%1st Place
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8.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.070.0%1st Place
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14.61University of California at Los Angeles-2.310.0%1st Place
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12.88University of California at Berkeley-1.930.0%1st Place
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15.57Arizona State University-2.450.0%1st Place
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8.65University of California at Santa Cruz-1.120.0%1st Place
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6.18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.480.1%1st Place
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18.38University of California at San Diego-2.980.0%1st Place
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10.83University of California at Berkeley-1.550.0%1st Place
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17.8University of California at Davis-2.810.0%1st Place
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11.64Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.680.0%1st Place
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14.72University of California at Irvine-2.270.0%1st Place
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10.45San Diego State University-1.450.0%1st Place
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14.53University of California at San Diego-2.220.0%1st Place
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13.61Arizona State University-2.070.0%1st Place
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18.0California State University Channel Islands-2.890.0%1st Place
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18.56University of California at Davis-3.020.0%1st Place
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16.82University of California at Los Angeles-2.750.0%1st Place
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20.29University of Southern California-3.360.0%1st Place
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19.96University of California at Los Angeles-3.330.0%1st Place
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17.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.730.0%1st Place
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18.28University of California at Irvine-3.020.0%1st Place
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10.85San Diego State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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16.47Arizona State University-2.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 56.9% | 24.1% | 11.7% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Sharp | 8.6% | 17.3% | 14.7% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 3.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Flanagan | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| John Mayfield | 0.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Mason Norwood | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Emilia McNabb | 3.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Parker Ziegler | 6.4% | 8.8% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Santos | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% |
| Connor Fagan | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| James Makler | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Eldridge | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
| julian stauffer | 2.2% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Claire Diaco | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.6% |
| Elias Ricken | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Vaughn Russell | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.4% |
| Emerson Coskey | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.3% |
| Greg Griffin | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% |
| Maximilian Miesen | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 19.0% |
| Felix Zhang | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 21.0% |
| Paul Munsell | 0.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% |
| Michael Jacobson | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.2% |
| Marley Daniel | 1.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Prendiville | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.