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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
26
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.82+0.75vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.06+2.86vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara-1.26+6.79vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles-2.31+10.96vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine-3.02+13.25vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.07+2.74vs Predicted
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7San Diego State University-1.53+3.85vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.48-1.79vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-2.45+6.58vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-1.06-1.30vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-1.17-1.93vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.68-0.07vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-2.52+3.13vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-2.81+3.68vs Predicted
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15San Diego State University-1.45-4.51vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.73+1.16vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine-2.27-2.25vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-3.33+2.02vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-2.75-1.74vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-2.98-1.94vs Predicted
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21California State University Channel Islands-2.89-2.89vs Predicted
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22University of California at Berkeley-2.02-8.54vs Predicted
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24University of California at San Diego-2.22-9.62vs Predicted
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25Arizona State University-2.07-11.60vs Predicted
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26University of Southern California-3.36-5.70vs Predicted
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27University of California at Davis-3.02-7.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.75University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.6%1st Place
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4.86University of California at Santa Cruz0.060.1%1st Place
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9.79University of California at Santa Barbara-1.260.0%1st Place
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14.96University of California at Los Angeles-2.310.0%1st Place
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18.25University of California at Irvine-3.020.0%1st Place
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8.74Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.070.0%1st Place
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10.85San Diego State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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6.21Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.480.1%1st Place
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15.58Arizona State University-2.450.0%1st Place
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8.7University of California at Berkeley-1.060.0%1st Place
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9.07University of California at Santa Cruz-1.170.0%1st Place
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11.93Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.680.0%1st Place
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16.13Arizona State University-2.520.0%1st Place
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17.68University of California at Davis-2.810.0%1st Place
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10.49San Diego State University-1.450.0%1st Place
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17.16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.730.0%1st Place
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14.75University of California at Irvine-2.270.0%1st Place
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20.02University of California at Los Angeles-3.330.0%1st Place
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17.26University of California at Los Angeles-2.750.0%1st Place
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18.06University of California at San Diego-2.980.0%1st Place
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18.11California State University Channel Islands-2.890.0%1st Place
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13.46University of California at Berkeley-2.020.0%1st Place
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14.38University of California at San Diego-2.220.0%1st Place
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13.4Arizona State University-2.070.0%1st Place
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20.3University of Southern California-3.360.0%1st Place
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19.06University of California at Davis-3.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 55.7% | 24.7% | 12.6% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Sharp | 9.9% | 13.4% | 16.2% | 13.4% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Flanagan | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Michael Jacobson | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 10.2% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 2.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marley Daniel | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Parker Ziegler | 5.6% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Norwood | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% |
| Tessa Greene | 3.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brily Petersen | 3.0% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 1.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Prendiville | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.5% |
| James Makler | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.8% |
| julian stauffer | 1.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Paul Munsell | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% |
| Spencer Eldridge | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% |
| Felix Zhang | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 17.6% |
| Greg Griffin | 0.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.0% |
| Mackenzie Santos | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 7.6% |
| Vaughn Russell | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% |
| Marianna Maciel | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Claire Diaco | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Elias Ricken | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Maximilian Miesen | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 19.0% |
| Emerson Coskey | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 11.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.