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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.9%
Within 2 Positions
5.0
Avg Position Diff
28
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.82+0.86vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University-1.53+9.98vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.07+6.38vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara-1.26+6.68vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley-1.06+4.50vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.06-0.71vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-1.17+3.12vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-2.45+8.56vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-2.02+5.63vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-2.52+7.64vs Predicted
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11Santa Clara University-0.65-3.27vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.68+1.33vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-2.31+3.27vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-2.27+1.87vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-3.02+5.26vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.48-9.11vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-2.81+2.33vs Predicted
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18San Diego State University-1.45-6.47vs Predicted
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19California State University Monterey Bay-2.05-4.03vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles-3.33+1.90vs Predicted
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21Arizona State University-2.07-6.16vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego-2.22-5.83vs Predicted
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23University of California at Los Angeles-2.75-3.97vs Predicted
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24Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.73-4.89vs Predicted
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25University of California at Davis-3.02-4.76vs Predicted
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26California State University Channel Islands-2.89-6.73vs Predicted
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27University of California at San Diego-2.98-7.03vs Predicted
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29University of Southern California-3.36-7.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.86University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.5%1st Place
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11.98San Diego State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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9.38Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.070.0%1st Place
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10.68University of California at Santa Barbara-1.260.0%1st Place
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9.5University of California at Berkeley-1.060.0%1st Place
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5.29University of California at Santa Cruz0.060.1%1st Place
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10.12University of California at Santa Cruz-1.170.0%1st Place
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16.56Arizona State University-2.450.0%1st Place
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14.63University of California at Berkeley-2.020.0%1st Place
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17.64Arizona State University-2.520.0%1st Place
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7.73Santa Clara University-0.650.0%1st Place
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13.33Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.680.0%1st Place
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16.27University of California at Los Angeles-2.310.0%1st Place
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15.87University of California at Irvine-2.270.0%1st Place
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20.26University of California at Irvine-3.020.0%1st Place
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6.89Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.480.0%1st Place
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19.33University of California at Davis-2.810.0%1st Place
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11.53San Diego State University-1.450.0%1st Place
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14.97California State University Monterey Bay-2.050.0%1st Place
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21.9University of California at Los Angeles-3.330.0%1st Place
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14.84Arizona State University-2.070.0%1st Place
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16.17University of California at San Diego-2.220.0%1st Place
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19.03University of California at Los Angeles-2.750.0%1st Place
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19.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.730.0%1st Place
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20.24University of California at Davis-3.020.0%1st Place
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19.27California State University Channel Islands-2.890.0%1st Place
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19.97University of California at San Diego-2.980.0%1st Place
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21.67University of Southern California-3.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 53.3% | 23.8% | 12.9% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marley Daniel | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 3.8% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tessa Greene | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Sharp | 7.2% | 12.8% | 16.9% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brily Petersen | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Norwood | 0.8% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Marianna Maciel | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| Matthew Prendiville | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% |
| Eoghan Kelley | 4.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 1.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| John Flanagan | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| Spencer Eldridge | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| Michael Jacobson | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 10.5% |
| Parker Ziegler | 4.0% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Makler | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% |
| julian stauffer | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Felix Zhang | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 19.0% |
| Elias Ricken | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Claire Diaco | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Greg Griffin | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% |
| Paul Munsell | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.0% |
| Emerson Coskey | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% |
| Vaughn Russell | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% |
| Mackenzie Santos | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 8.1% |
| Maximilian Miesen | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 18.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.