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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1San Diego State University2.11+6.23vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.54+3.68vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+4.79vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+6.19vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.77vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.53-0.44vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.45-1.21vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.01-0.82vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.90-1.37vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00+4.32vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy1.75-2.57vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands0.42+1.19vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California1.48-3.88vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.12-0.39vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley0.64-2.76vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego1.09-5.28vs Predicted
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17University of Washington0.66-4.79vs Predicted
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18University of Washington-0.77-2.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.23San Diego State University2.110.1%1st Place
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5.68Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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7.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.1%1st Place
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10.19University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.0%1st Place
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4.23St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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5.56Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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5.79Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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7.18Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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7.63George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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14.32Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.0%1st Place
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8.43California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.1%1st Place
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13.19California State University Channel Islands0.420.0%1st Place
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9.12University of Southern California1.480.0%1st Place
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13.61Northwestern University0.120.0%1st Place
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12.24University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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10.72University of California at San Diego1.090.0%1st Place
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12.21University of Washington0.660.0%1st Place
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15.88University of Washington-0.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Nyenhuis | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Diego Escobar | 8.9% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 21.4% | 16.4% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 10.9% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Holthus | 11.1% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 14.5% | 20.8% | 18.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Sterling Maggard | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 9.7% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Grace Bray | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 18.1% | 12.4% |
| Carsten Zieger | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 4.1% |
| Allie Shand | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Lucien Freemesser | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 8.0% | 4.5% |
| Stephanie Seto | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 10.9% | 17.8% | 46.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.