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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.45+5.01vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.28vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.54+2.61vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University2.11+2.85vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+2.46vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+2.22vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.53-1.45vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego1.09+2.52vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.90-1.40vs Predicted
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10University of Washington0.66+2.32vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.64+1.32vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.01-4.50vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University0.12+0.63vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands0.42-1.31vs Predicted
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15University of Washington-0.77+1.00vs Predicted
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16University of Southern California1.48-6.73vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara0.97-5.82vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00-4.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.01Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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4.28St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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5.61Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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6.85San Diego State University2.110.1%1st Place
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7.46U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.1%1st Place
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8.22California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.1%1st Place
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5.55Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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10.52University of California at San Diego1.090.0%1st Place
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7.6George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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12.32University of Washington0.660.0%1st Place
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12.32University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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7.5Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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13.63Northwestern University0.120.0%1st Place
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12.69California State University Channel Islands0.420.0%1st Place
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16.0University of Washington-0.770.0%1st Place
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9.27University of Southern California1.480.0%1st Place
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11.18University of California at Santa Barbara0.970.0%1st Place
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13.98Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holthus | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 16.4% | 18.1% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Diego Escobar | 10.6% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Nyenhuis | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 5.9% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 12.1% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Allie Shand | 3.3% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lucien Freemesser | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 5.0% |
| Carsten Zieger | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 6.7% |
| Lucas Thress | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Grace Bray | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 14.7% | 16.4% | 13.3% |
| Sterling Maggard | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 7.5% |
| Stephanie Seto | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 17.8% | 47.4% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Erisman | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 2.7% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 19.7% | 15.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.