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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.30vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.45+3.87vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.01+4.33vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.53+1.40vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University2.11+1.77vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.54-0.57vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+0.46vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.90-0.60vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy1.75-0.98vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego1.09+0.64vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00+3.03vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.64+0.32vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara1.19-3.05vs Predicted
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14University of Washington0.66-2.31vs Predicted
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15University of Southern California0.64-3.01vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University0.12-2.22vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands0.42-4.15vs Predicted
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18University of Washington-0.77-2.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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5.87Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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7.33Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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5.4Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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6.77San Diego State University2.110.1%1st Place
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5.43Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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7.46U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.1%1st Place
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7.4George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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8.02California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.0%1st Place
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10.64University of California at San Diego1.090.0%1st Place
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14.03Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.0%1st Place
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12.32University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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9.95University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.0%1st Place
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11.69University of Washington0.660.0%1st Place
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11.99University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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13.78Northwestern University0.120.0%1st Place
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12.85California State University Channel Islands0.420.0%1st Place
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15.78University of Washington-0.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 16.8% | 15.9% | 14.8% | 12.7% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Holthus | 8.3% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 12.6% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Nyenhuis | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Diego Escobar | 11.9% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Allie Shand | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 18.5% | 17.8% |
| Carsten Zieger | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 4.4% |
| Jasper Reid | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Lucien Freemesser | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 4.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 4.3% |
| Grace Bray | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 14.0% | 16.9% | 13.6% |
| Sterling Maggard | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 7.7% |
| Stephanie Seto | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 17.4% | 45.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.