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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.38+2.15vs Predicted
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2University of South Florida1.86+2.41vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara0.67+4.78vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.05+2.76vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii1.09+1.50vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.49+2.36vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.64+0.93vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida1.15-1.82vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida1.56-3.90vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii-0.46+1.05vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California0.64-3.17vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.02-3.22vs Predicted
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14University of Hawaii0.40-5.48vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.71-1.42vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-2.19-1.59vs Predicted
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18Rutgers University-2.34-3.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.15University of Hawaii2.380.3%1st Place
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4.41University of South Florida1.860.2%1st Place
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7.78University of California at Santa Barbara0.670.1%1st Place
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6.76University of California at Santa Barbara1.050.1%1st Place
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6.5University of Hawaii1.090.1%1st Place
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8.36Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.490.0%1st Place
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7.93University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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6.18University of South Florida1.150.1%1st Place
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5.1University of South Florida1.560.1%1st Place
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11.05University of Hawaii-0.460.0%1st Place
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7.83University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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9.78Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.020.0%1st Place
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8.52University of Hawaii0.400.0%1st Place
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13.58University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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14.41University of California at Davis-2.190.0%1st Place
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14.66Rutgers University-2.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Anderson | 26.6% | 21.3% | 16.4% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 16.4% | 15.0% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evelyn Engebretson | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Julian Skerrett | 5.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 6.8% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 3.8% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Carsten Zieger | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Grace Jones | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kailey Warrior | 11.8% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Fourney | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 20.1% | 17.6% | 7.8% | 0.7% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Florence Duff | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 15.7% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Malia Johnson | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 11.3% | 24.5% | 27.4% | 17.7% |
| Juliette Cramer | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 16.4% | 29.8% | 37.4% |
| Karolina Debniak | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 14.4% | 27.6% | 43.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.