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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.47+3.50vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii-0.46+8.38vs Predicted
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3University of South Florida0.94+3.16vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.05+1.94vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara0.67+2.01vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida1.56-1.60vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.49+0.59vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida1.15-2.60vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii0.40-1.20vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii0.36-1.97vs Predicted
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11University of Hawaii-0.14-1.53vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley0.25-5.71vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.02-5.81vs Predicted
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16Rutgers University-1.33-3.38vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-2.62-2.14vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis-2.19-3.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.5University of Southern California1.470.2%1st Place
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10.38University of Hawaii-0.460.0%1st Place
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6.16University of South Florida0.940.1%1st Place
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5.94University of California at Santa Barbara1.050.1%1st Place
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7.01University of California at Santa Barbara0.670.1%1st Place
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4.4University of South Florida1.560.2%1st Place
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7.59Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.490.1%1st Place
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5.4University of South Florida1.150.1%1st Place
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7.8University of Hawaii0.400.0%1st Place
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8.03University of Hawaii0.360.1%1st Place
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9.47University of Hawaii-0.140.0%1st Place
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8.29University of California at Berkeley0.250.0%1st Place
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9.19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.020.0%1st Place
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12.62Rutgers University-1.330.0%1st Place
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14.86University of California at San Diego-2.620.0%1st Place
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14.36University of California at Davis-2.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Harris | 16.2% | 16.1% | 11.1% | 14.0% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Fourney | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 15.3% | 14.9% | 7.2% | 0.9% |
| Ghislaine van Empel | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julian Skerrett | 9.1% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evelyn Engebretson | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kailey Warrior | 16.0% | 15.4% | 14.2% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Grace Jones | 11.6% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Malia Johnson | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Gardiner Van Ness | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Zach Brennan | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 0.4% |
| Michael McCulloch | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Florence Duff | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Martin | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 25.6% | 21.1% | 8.8% |
| Maria Gunness | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 8.9% | 23.2% | 56.2% |
| Juliette Cramer | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 5.9% | 12.4% | 36.4% | 33.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.