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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii1.19+3.09vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.03+2.46vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii-0.11+4.94vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida1.32-0.03vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida0.11+2.06vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida0.94-1.06vs Predicted
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8University of Victoria-0.32+0.56vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii0.90-4.11vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara-1.26+1.62vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California-0.60-1.60vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-1.46+0.16vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.68-0.27vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara-0.36-5.26vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley-1.60-2.39vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.64-3.43vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-2.88-1.57vs Predicted
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18Rutgers University-1.33-6.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.09University of Hawaii1.190.2%1st Place
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4.46University of Hawaii1.030.1%1st Place
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7.94University of Hawaii-0.110.0%1st Place
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3.97University of South Florida1.320.2%1st Place
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7.06University of South Florida0.110.1%1st Place
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4.94University of South Florida0.940.1%1st Place
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8.56University of Victoria-0.320.0%1st Place
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4.89University of Hawaii0.900.1%1st Place
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11.62University of California at Santa Barbara-1.260.0%1st Place
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9.4University of Southern California-0.600.0%1st Place
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12.16University of California at San Diego-1.460.0%1st Place
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12.73Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.680.0%1st Place
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8.74University of California at Santa Barbara-0.360.0%1st Place
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12.61University of California at Berkeley-1.600.0%1st Place
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12.57Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.640.0%1st Place
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15.43University of California at Davis-2.880.0%1st Place
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11.82Rutgers University-1.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arden Rathkopf | 18.4% | 16.1% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Everett McAvoy | 14.9% | 11.9% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kahlia Bailey | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Kalea Woodard | 18.3% | 16.2% | 15.0% | 14.2% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sara Menesale | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ghislaine van Empel | 11.7% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Lemke | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Martha Schuessler | 12.6% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 0.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 4.1% |
| Lara Granucci | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Alex Bussey | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 6.2% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 17.1% | 16.2% | 8.7% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Bianca Weber | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 15.6% | 9.1% |
| Noa Brassfield | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 14.4% | 15.2% | 9.4% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 55.2% |
| Andrew Martin | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 6.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.