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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii1.03+3.90vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.19+2.48vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii0.90+2.36vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida1.32+0.29vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida0.45+1.46vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara0.97-0.75vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California-0.60+2.71vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida0.77-2.47vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii-0.11-0.59vs Predicted
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10University of Victoria-0.32-1.14vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara-0.36-1.93vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.90-1.46vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.64-0.54vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.68-1.34vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-2.88-1.17vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-2.34-3.00vs Predicted
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18Rutgers University-3.82-1.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.9University of Hawaii1.030.1%1st Place
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4.48University of Hawaii1.190.1%1st Place
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5.36University of Hawaii0.900.1%1st Place
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4.29University of South Florida1.320.2%1st Place
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6.46University of South Florida0.450.1%1st Place
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5.25University of California at Santa Barbara0.970.1%1st Place
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9.71University of Southern California-0.600.0%1st Place
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5.53University of South Florida0.770.1%1st Place
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8.41University of Hawaii-0.110.0%1st Place
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8.86University of Victoria-0.320.0%1st Place
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9.07University of California at Santa Barbara-0.360.0%1st Place
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10.54University of California at Berkeley-0.900.0%1st Place
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12.46Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.640.0%1st Place
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12.66Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.680.0%1st Place
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14.83University of California at Davis-2.880.0%1st Place
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14.0University of California at San Diego-2.340.0%1st Place
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16.19Rutgers University-3.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everett McAvoy | 13.8% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arden Rathkopf | 14.9% | 13.5% | 14.6% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martha Schuessler | 10.5% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kalea Woodard | 16.7% | 15.0% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Dreyfuss | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Erisman | 10.5% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lara Granucci | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Heidi Hicks | 11.1% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kahlia Bailey | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Lemke | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Aivan Durfee | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 14.3% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.1% |
| Noa Brassfield | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 18.5% | 16.8% | 8.6% | 3.5% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 14.0% | 18.7% | 17.4% | 12.7% | 2.0% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 18.2% | 34.5% | 21.0% |
| Liza Churkov | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 9.8% | 15.2% | 25.5% | 23.0% | 7.9% |
| Terry Nguyen | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 16.7% | 65.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.