← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara0.97+3.98vs Predicted
-
2University of Southern California-0.60+7.65vs Predicted
-
3University of Hawaii1.03+1.96vs Predicted
-
4University of Hawaii0.90+1.42vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Santa Barbara-0.36+3.91vs Predicted
-
6University of South Florida0.77-0.21vs Predicted
-
7University of Hawaii1.19-2.51vs Predicted
-
8University of South Florida1.32-3.82vs Predicted
-
9University of South Florida0.45-2.23vs Predicted
-
10University of Victoria-0.32-1.16vs Predicted
-
11University of Hawaii-0.11-2.67vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Berkeley-0.90-1.48vs Predicted
-
13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.68-0.42vs Predicted
-
15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.64-2.46vs Predicted
-
16University of California at Davis-2.88-1.14vs Predicted
-
17University of California at San Diego-2.34-3.00vs Predicted
-
18Rutgers University-3.82-1.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.98University of California at Santa Barbara0.970.1%1st Place
-
9.65University of Southern California-0.600.0%1st Place
-
4.96University of Hawaii1.030.1%1st Place
-
5.42University of Hawaii0.900.1%1st Place
-
8.91University of California at Santa Barbara-0.360.0%1st Place
-
5.79University of South Florida0.770.1%1st Place
-
4.49University of Hawaii1.190.1%1st Place
-
4.18University of South Florida1.320.2%1st Place
-
6.77University of South Florida0.450.1%1st Place
-
8.84University of Victoria-0.320.0%1st Place
-
8.33University of Hawaii-0.110.0%1st Place
-
10.52University of California at Berkeley-0.900.0%1st Place
-
12.58Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.680.0%1st Place
-
12.54Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.640.0%1st Place
-
14.86University of California at Davis-2.880.0%1st Place
-
14.0University of California at San Diego-2.340.0%1st Place
-
16.19Rutgers University-3.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Erisman | 13.8% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lara Granucci | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Everett McAvoy | 12.4% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martha Schuessler | 11.7% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Heidi Hicks | 9.2% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arden Rathkopf | 14.3% | 13.4% | 14.6% | 13.6% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kalea Woodard | 16.5% | 17.7% | 14.7% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Dreyfuss | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Lemke | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Kahlia Bailey | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Aivan Durfee | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 15.0% | 12.1% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 10.0% | 15.7% | 18.5% | 17.9% | 9.3% | 3.7% |
| Noa Brassfield | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 14.9% | 17.6% | 17.6% | 11.7% | 1.9% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 9.1% | 17.7% | 34.4% | 21.0% |
| Liza Churkov | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 14.8% | 26.2% | 23.0% | 7.9% |
| Terry Nguyen | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 16.8% | 64.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.