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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of South Florida0.77+4.84vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.49+0.34vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii0.90+2.66vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii-0.11+4.47vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California-0.60+4.71vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.19-1.00vs Predicted
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7University of Victoria-0.32+2.05vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida0.45-1.27vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.90+1.72vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida1.32-5.42vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara-0.36-1.79vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara0.97-6.55vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.68-0.39vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.64-1.42vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-2.34-1.10vs Predicted
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17Rutgers University-3.82-0.82vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis-2.88-3.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.84University of South Florida0.770.1%1st Place
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2.34University of Hawaii2.490.4%1st Place
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5.66University of Hawaii0.900.1%1st Place
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8.47University of Hawaii-0.110.0%1st Place
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9.71University of Southern California-0.600.0%1st Place
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5.0University of Hawaii1.190.1%1st Place
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9.05University of Victoria-0.320.0%1st Place
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6.73University of South Florida0.450.1%1st Place
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10.72University of California at Berkeley-0.900.0%1st Place
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4.58University of South Florida1.320.1%1st Place
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9.21University of California at Santa Barbara-0.360.0%1st Place
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5.45University of California at Santa Barbara0.970.1%1st Place
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12.61Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.680.0%1st Place
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12.58Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.640.0%1st Place
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13.9University of California at San Diego-2.340.0%1st Place
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16.18Rutgers University-3.820.0%1st Place
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14.97University of California at Davis-2.880.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heidi Hicks | 7.7% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Fleming | 37.8% | 26.9% | 15.6% | 10.3% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martha Schuessler | 7.4% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kahlia Bailey | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lara Granucci | 1.3% | 1.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Arden Rathkopf | 10.1% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Lemke | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Marina Dreyfuss | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aivan Durfee | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 15.7% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Kalea Woodard | 11.6% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Erisman | 8.1% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 14.7% | 19.0% | 16.5% | 12.2% | 1.7% |
| Noa Brassfield | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 15.0% | 18.0% | 19.8% | 9.3% | 1.9% |
| Liza Churkov | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 15.3% | 22.5% | 23.3% | 9.4% |
| Terry Nguyen | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 8.0% | 17.1% | 65.2% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 17.4% | 33.7% | 21.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.