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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of South Florida1.32+3.50vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.49+0.33vs Predicted
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3University of Victoria-0.32+6.01vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California-0.60+5.77vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara-0.36+4.08vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida0.77+0.03vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida0.45-0.13vs Predicted
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8University of Hawaii0.90-2.45vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii-0.11-0.39vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara0.97-4.59vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.90-0.34vs Predicted
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12University of Hawaii1.19-7.06vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-2.34+0.96vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.68-1.33vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.64-3.55vs Predicted
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17Rutgers University-3.82-0.85vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis-2.88-2.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.5University of South Florida1.320.1%1st Place
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2.33University of Hawaii2.490.4%1st Place
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9.01University of Victoria-0.320.0%1st Place
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9.77University of Southern California-0.600.0%1st Place
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9.08University of California at Santa Barbara-0.360.0%1st Place
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6.03University of South Florida0.770.1%1st Place
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6.87University of South Florida0.450.0%1st Place
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5.55University of Hawaii0.900.1%1st Place
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8.61University of Hawaii-0.110.0%1st Place
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5.41University of California at Santa Barbara0.970.1%1st Place
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10.66University of California at Berkeley-0.900.0%1st Place
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4.94University of Hawaii1.190.1%1st Place
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13.96University of California at San Diego-2.340.0%1st Place
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12.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.680.0%1st Place
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12.45Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.640.0%1st Place
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16.15Rutgers University-3.820.0%1st Place
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15.02University of California at Davis-2.880.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalea Woodard | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Fleming | 38.4% | 27.0% | 15.0% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Lemke | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lara Granucci | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 14.3% | 11.2% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Heidi Hicks | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Dreyfuss | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martha Schuessler | 9.3% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kahlia Bailey | 2.6% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Erisman | 7.1% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aivan Durfee | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 14.5% | 15.9% | 11.8% | 6.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Arden Rathkopf | 10.1% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liza Churkov | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 23.8% | 24.8% | 8.6% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 14.7% | 19.8% | 18.5% | 10.0% | 2.6% |
| Noa Brassfield | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 14.9% | 19.7% | 16.7% | 8.6% | 2.4% |
| Terry Nguyen | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 8.0% | 17.7% | 64.4% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 10.0% | 16.1% | 35.5% | 21.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.