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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+4.81vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+0.85vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego0.18+3.69vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University0.32+2.31vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-0.55vs Predicted
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6California State University Channel Islands0.42+0.18vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara-1.23+3.37vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.71-2.74vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine-0.66+0.16vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-1.38+1.08vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University0.17-4.17vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.72-2.64vs Predicted
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13Santa Clara University-1.98-0.90vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley-0.50-6.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.81University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.1%1st Place
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2.85California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.3%1st Place
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6.69University of California at San Diego0.180.1%1st Place
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6.31Arizona State University0.320.1%1st Place
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4.45Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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6.18California State University Channel Islands0.420.1%1st Place
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10.37University of California at Santa Barbara-1.230.0%1st Place
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5.26University of California at Berkeley0.710.1%1st Place
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9.16University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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11.08University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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6.83San Diego State University0.170.1%1st Place
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9.36University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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12.1Santa Clara University-1.980.0%1st Place
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8.54University of California at Berkeley-0.500.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Soliman | 7.5% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 30.4% | 23.3% | 17.0% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Matt Grimsley | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Garrett Henderson | 13.2% | 14.6% | 15.4% | 13.3% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Jonah Eckerman | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 14.6% | 21.0% | 14.2% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 11.3% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Nikita Swatek | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 5.0% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 15.4% | 21.9% | 22.0% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 7.5% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 11.7% | 17.4% | 45.8% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 14.5% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 3.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.