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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+1.91vs Predicted
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2California State University Channel Islands0.42+3.83vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+1.30vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.71+1.27vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+1.01vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.18+0.83vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine-0.66+1.92vs Predicted
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8San Diego State University0.17-1.25vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University0.32-2.65vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-0.72-0.60vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara-1.23-0.29vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.50-3.30vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-3.07vs Predicted
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15Santa Clara University-1.98-2.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.91California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.3%1st Place
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5.83California State University Channel Islands0.420.1%1st Place
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4.3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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5.27University of California at Berkeley0.710.1%1st Place
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6.01University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.1%1st Place
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6.83University of California at San Diego0.180.1%1st Place
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8.92University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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6.75San Diego State University0.170.1%1st Place
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6.35Arizona State University0.320.1%1st Place
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9.4University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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10.71University of California at Santa Barbara-1.230.0%1st Place
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8.7University of California at Berkeley-0.500.0%1st Place
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10.93University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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12.1Santa Clara University-1.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 30.9% | 24.2% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Garrett Henderson | 14.6% | 15.2% | 15.4% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 8.6% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 6.7% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 6.8% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 0.2% |
| Nikita Swatek | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 4.6% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Matt Grimsley | 7.0% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 6.7% |
| Jonah Eckerman | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 15.8% | 20.2% | 17.2% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 4.7% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 15.7% | 20.8% | 20.7% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 18.4% | 44.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.