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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+1.94vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+2.22vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego0.18+3.73vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+1.88vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.71+0.39vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley-0.50+2.80vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands0.42-1.21vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.32-1.72vs Predicted
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9San Diego State University0.17-2.21vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine-0.66-0.75vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-1.38+0.05vs Predicted
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12Santa Clara University-1.98+0.17vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara-1.23-2.46vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-0.72-4.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.94California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.3%1st Place
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4.22Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.2%1st Place
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6.73University of California at San Diego0.180.1%1st Place
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5.88University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.1%1st Place
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5.39University of California at Berkeley0.710.1%1st Place
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8.8University of California at Berkeley-0.500.0%1st Place
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5.79California State University Channel Islands0.420.1%1st Place
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6.28Arizona State University0.320.1%1st Place
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6.79San Diego State University0.170.1%1st Place
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9.25University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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11.05University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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12.17Santa Clara University-1.980.0%1st Place
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10.54University of California at Santa Barbara-1.230.0%1st Place
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9.18University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 29.9% | 23.6% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Henderson | 15.3% | 15.7% | 14.5% | 13.5% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| George Soliman | 6.5% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 8.1% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 13.7% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 3.6% |
| Sterling Maggard | 9.5% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Matt Grimsley | 6.8% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Nikita Swatek | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 15.6% | 10.4% | 6.5% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 14.9% | 22.4% | 21.1% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 18.5% | 45.7% |
| Jonah Eckerman | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 15.1% | 18.6% | 16.7% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 4.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.