← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+1.91vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Berkeley0.71+3.06vs Predicted
-
3University of California at San Diego0.18+3.70vs Predicted
-
4Arizona State University0.32+2.36vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+0.95vs Predicted
-
6California State University Channel Islands0.42+0.18vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Berkeley-0.50+1.39vs Predicted
-
8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-3.60vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Irvine-0.66+0.18vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Santa Barbara-1.23+0.74vs Predicted
-
12San Diego State University0.17-5.18vs Predicted
-
13Santa Clara University-1.98-0.78vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Davis-0.72-4.78vs Predicted
-
15University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-4.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.91California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.3%1st Place
-
5.06University of California at Berkeley0.710.1%1st Place
-
6.7University of California at San Diego0.180.1%1st Place
-
6.36Arizona State University0.320.1%1st Place
-
5.95University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.1%1st Place
-
6.18California State University Channel Islands0.420.1%1st Place
-
8.39University of California at Berkeley-0.500.0%1st Place
-
4.4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
-
9.18University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
-
10.74University of California at Santa Barbara-1.230.0%1st Place
-
6.82San Diego State University0.170.1%1st Place
-
12.22Santa Clara University-1.980.0%1st Place
-
9.22University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
-
10.87University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 30.8% | 22.9% | 14.9% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 10.2% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Matt Grimsley | 5.3% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| George Soliman | 7.0% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Sterling Maggard | 7.4% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 3.4% |
| Garrett Henderson | 14.4% | 15.9% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 5.1% |
| Jonah Eckerman | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 19.8% | 19.1% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 11.1% | 18.7% | 46.4% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 10.1% | 6.8% |
| Conrad Kistler | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 15.0% | 24.4% | 17.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.