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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+1.84vs Predicted
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2Arizona State University0.32+4.32vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.02+4.43vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+3.62vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine-0.66+4.62vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.71-0.72vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands0.42-0.89vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-0.72+1.76vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.18-2.13vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University0.17-2.97vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-5.02vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara-1.23-0.58vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.50-3.72vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-2.43vs Predicted
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15Santa Clara University-1.98-2.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.84California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.3%1st Place
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6.32Arizona State University0.320.1%1st Place
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7.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.020.1%1st Place
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7.62Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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9.62University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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5.28University of California at Berkeley0.710.1%1st Place
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6.11California State University Channel Islands0.420.1%1st Place
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9.76University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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6.87University of California at San Diego0.180.1%1st Place
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7.03San Diego State University0.170.1%1st Place
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5.98University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.1%1st Place
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11.42University of California at Santa Barbara-1.230.0%1st Place
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9.28University of California at Berkeley-0.500.0%1st Place
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11.57University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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12.87Santa Clara University-1.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 32.4% | 25.5% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 6.2% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Florence Duff | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Nikita Swatek | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 5.2% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 10.4% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 9.5% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 6.3% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| George Soliman | 8.3% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Jonah Eckerman | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 15.9% | 18.5% | 16.9% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 3.9% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 21.2% | 19.6% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 18.1% | 44.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.